Qantas has a new CEO. Does that mean airfares will finally go down?

On a recent trip from Sydney to Coffs Harbour to see family, Julie had to pay $250 one way for a Qantas flight - a steep increase from the $59 to $79 she was used to paying pre-pandemic. She had little choice. "It's only Qantas and Rex flying to Coffs now," Julie tells Explore. "It's highway robbery. No wonder Qantas has made such a profit."

In August Qantas posted a record profit of $2.47 billion. It comes after passengers booking flights to Europe faced fares that were up to 46 per cent higher than last year, according to kayak.com.au. Domestic fares aren't much better. According to Qantas, its domestic fares are 4 per cent higher than pre-COVID-19 levels and international fares 10 per cent higher. But why?

Tim Collins, director of consultancy Upstream Aviation, says the answer lies partly in Alan Joyce's legacy and farewell package: the now former CEO, who departed this week amid controversy, is to pocket more than $10 million in bonus shares for meeting the airline's COVID-19 recovery goals.

"Qantas is out to make a profit and - pre-departure - Alan Joyce wanted to restore its balance sheet to as good a state as he possibly could," Collins says.

Qantas is not alone: pent-up demand, reduced competition and a shortage of capacity have seen airlines worldwide post huge profits. "Plus there's a massive supply chain issue with spare parts," says Collins.

It's simple supply and demand, explains Geoffrey Thomas, editor in chief of airlineratings.com. "If planes are 80 per cent full, airlines make some money. But when they're 100 per cent full, they make a lot of money. And planes are full right now."

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When asked by Explore why airfares were so high, Qantas cited its recent release that stated "strong demand and industry-wide supply chain constraints".

So when will fares fall? Qantas claims its fares have already come down by 12 per cent this year thanks to "additional capacity, moderating fuel costs and a stronger Australian dollar" and new CEO Vanessa Hudson assures us they will keep falling.

Thomas believes we should see fares come down "substantially" in the first half of next year. "We're going to get airlines coming back, more planes delivered, more capacity returning and demand also returning to normal levels, so airfares will naturally decline."

But Collins warns passengers shouldn't get too excited about cheap fares just yet. "Qantas will aim to make another huge profit and they'll do that by cutting costs and selling tickets as high as possible. The only way it'll lower airfares is if people stop booking." This seems unlikely. While people may feel angry and frustrated towards Qantas, for now they're still buying, he says.

"What's the alternative? People will take the most convenient flight and if it's $50 more, so be it."