A key plank of the Albanese government's policy for keeping Australia prosperous and secure has been questioned by the country's leading scientific body.
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In April, the prime minister announced that Australia would develop a reserve of "critical minerals" - the rare minerals which are thought to be essential for the global technological revolution now gathering speed.
There would be a stock-pile of minerals like lithium, cobalt, manganese and rare earth elements which will be critical for a string of important industries, particularly defence.
"Critical minerals and rare earths are essential inputs to the modern and future economy - underpinning the energy transition, high tech manufacturing, AI and the digital economy," Anthony Albanese said.
"Australia is home to some of the largest critical minerals deposits on earth - just about the whole periodic table of elements. We are uniquely placed to meet the needs of increasing global and domestic demand. The size and sophistication of our mining industry allows us to take maximum advantage of these resources," the government said.
The stockpile would be for use by Australia and its allies. The United States and China are vying for access to these minerals.
But the Australian Academy of Science has undermined the feasibility of the project. It said that there were unlikely to be enough engineers and scientists to fulfil the promise.
It's found gaps "in workforce, infrastructure and coordination - that will cripple our ability to meet the challenges of 2060," Ian Chubb, who chaired the Academy's panel of scientists looking at the problem, said.
"Unless we find a way to make sure we retain the expertise, and if you regard the universities essentially as repositories of expertise, we won't be able to operate effectively as a sovereign nation in a lot of these areas."
Professor Chubb felt that the country's capacity "to innovate and respond to emerging challenges" had been harmed.
One of the problems identified by the Academy was the lack of future engineers and scientists coming through the education system, both from schools and universities.
The report analysed the numbers taking science subjects in schools had fallen. In the last 10 years, the percentage of Year 12 students studying higher and intermediate mathematics dropped with COVID and has failed to rise enough since.
Earlier in the year, Universities Australia, which represents 39 universities, said that PhD enrolments had dropped by an "alarming" eight per cent between 2018 and 2023.
It blamed "skyrocketing living costs and a base stipend barely above the poverty line".
"The average enrolled PhD candidate is 37 years old, juggling significant financial responsibilities like families and rent, yet they are excluded from critical government benefits like paid parental leave," the organization's chief executive Luke Sheehy said.
The Academy's analysis found:
- We aren't training enough geoscientists, yet our economy rests heavily on resources, and 'Critical Minerals' is a priority of the National Reconstruction Fund.
- Jobs in artificial intelligence (AI) are expected to surge, yet only one in four Year 12 students is studying mathematics - the fundamental science discipline.
- We're facing national shortages of materials scientists, and the workforce in process and resources engineering is also projected to decline.
- The current pipeline and study choices of students is not aligned with the needs of our future workforce, with declining STEM participation and teacher shortages threatening relevant capability.
